Given the huge volume of lists and predictions floating around right now, it's impossible for me to resist sharing a few thoughts on what we are likely to see happen in the coming year. So here, in no particular order, are 7 (7 is luckier than 10!) predictions for digital media & the web in 2009:
1. Facebook Connect Makes a Big Splash
Facebook's new "Connect" application, which allows users to login to other sites and share information from their Facebook profile, will catch on in a big way. Mainly because of the convenience of not having to fill out all those forms, and also because the technology will make relevant recommendations based on user profiles. This will be a boon to advertisers and online retailers (not to mention Facebook itself which is desperately seeking a way to monetize its model) but will exact a price by the end of the year. Namely, many users will feel their privacy has been compromised beyond the benefits they receive from Facebook Connect.
2. Emergence of Niche Social Networking Sites
The incredible popularity of MySpace, Facebook, and to a lesser extent LinkedIn will help spawn a new generation of micro-targeted social networks. This idea is not new - sites such as "A Small World" have been around for years. But the number of friends most users have has gotten out of hand. For many people, the majority of updates they are getting are from people they hardly know or care about. New sites will take advantage of this dissatisfaction by having more focused communities of like-minded people, often with membership by invitation-only.
3. Economic Frugality Translates Into Media Dieting
As people dramatically re-evaluate their consumption habits in light of the recession, people will also re-think the amount of media they consume. For a small but influential segment of the US population, time spent online averaged XX in 2008. Being constantly connected to the Internet, checking email 10 times an hour, and checking the latest news incessantly has come to feel like an addiction to many people. I wouldn't be surprised if many consumer resolve to go on a "digital diet" in 2009.
4. Hulu Grows and Serves as Model for Music Industry
Hulu, the joint venture between NBC and News Corporation, posted some strong viewership gains in 2008. Aided by the popularity of the SNL coverage of the Elections, the site is now seen as the digital model for the major TV networks. As broadband penetration continues to grow, and the viewers become more comfortable with watching content online, expect to see Hulu expand. As a result, advertising agencies will become more interested in developing highly creative "pre-roll" advertising units which are much less limiting than traditional :30 TV spots. It's also rumored that the music industry will launch a major site modeled on Hulu to compete with Apple's iTunes offering.
5. Marketing Book of 2009: "What Would Google Do?"
The buzz surrounding the upcoming publication of Jeff Jarvis' "What Would Google Do?" is deafening. This will be on a lot of ad agency and CMO shelves in the coming year.
6. Smart Phone Usage Replaces Broadband Connectivity Among Young
Young adults (18-24) are getting rid of both their landlines AND broadband connections in favor of smart phones like the iPhone and Blackberries. For many of these consumers, connecting via a laptop is just not as convenient or cost-effective. Expect to see more of this, with a positive effect on the development of the mobile advertising marketplace (which lags behind the rest of the world here in the US).
7. Traditional Display Banner Advertising Declines
Expect to see traditional "brand" banner advertising decline by double-digits in 2009. To some degree, the trend away from basic banner advertising was already underway before the economic melt-down of 08. Dollars that used to flow into traditional banner advertising will now go towards rich media units, or more retail/offer focused banners.